Week 4 Predictions

ChrisConte47 (2-1) vs. Trimeniscus in sept (3-0)

The only unbeaten team against the league's best backfield.

Conte: Josh Allen, Jahmyr Gibbs, TreVeyon Henderson, Mike Evans, Jaylen Waddle, Harold Fannin Jr., Parker Washington, Malik Washington, JAX
Buscho: Drake Maye, Bijan Robinson, Cam Skattebo, George Pickens, Tee Higgins, Brock Bowers, Christian Watson, Chuba Hubbard, DEN

Buscho is 3-0, and last week he left 36.48 points on his bench and won by 33 anyway. That kind of luck runs out. The weak spot is the same one that's been there all season: quarterback.

Drake Maye has scored 12.82, 9.02, and 5.76 — 27.60 total. Bo Nix, on the bench, has scored 6.44, 15.12, and 25.14 — 46.70, trending up every week. Maye practiced fully through a shoulder issue and gets Buffalo on the road. Nix gets San Francisco. Neither matchup is great, but one quarterback is getting better and the other is getting worse.

The rest is excellent. Bijan has 77.7 points in three weeks. Brock Bowers came back to 27.6 on 13 targets. Watson has been a top receiver with Jayden Reed out, and Reed is now done for the year. Michael Wilson (25.9) and Jakobi Meyers (19.4) are both on the bench.

Conte has the best start in the league: Josh Allen and Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs has scored at least 23 every week and leads all running backs with 98.3. Allen gets New England at home. Harold Fannin plays tonight in Cleveland after his breakout 24.1.

The concern is the receivers. Evans didn't practice. Waddle has been inconsistent (1.2, 21.8, 6.4). TreVeyon Henderson has 3.9 in his one start. The fix is on the IR: Nico Collins is practicing again, and activating him for Evans is the best move available to anyone this week.

Pick: ChrisConte47 — the unbeaten run ends

Haasinator5 (0-3) vs. Champion of the Sun God (2-1)

The league's unluckiest manager against its highest scorer.

Haas: Jared Goff, Saquon Barkley, Javonte Williams, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Luther Burden, Isaiah Likely, DeVonta Smith, Terry McLaurin, CHI
Max: Lamar Jackson, Kyren Williams, Chase Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Zay Flowers, George Kittle, Ladd McConkey, Matthew Golden, SEA

This column picked Haas last week. He played a perfect lineup and lost by 33. He is 0-3 with the fifth-most points in the league. And this week he gets the league's top scorer at 438.80.

Haas made one smart move: he swapped New England's defense (−1.0 last week) for Chicago against the Jets, a team without Breece Hall. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 108.06 points in three weeks. Goff finally got the quarterback slot right with 19.36, and Detroit plays Sunday night at Carolina.

But DeVonta Smith didn't practice, Saquon has been stuck at 9, 3, and 9, and Luther Burden's quarterback is now Case Keenum. Justin Herbert is on the bench for the third straight week.

Max fixed last week's problems. Kittle played and scored 26.2. Golden got the start and scored 21.0. This week Golden is in a flex, Flowers is back as a starter, and Diggs is on the bench. Flowers was limited Wednesday instead of missing practice, and he scored 15.4 last week on 20 to 30 snaps. That's an upgrade from last week's alarm.

The risk is health across the board: Lamar (back, limited), Flowers (hamstring, limited), McConkey (foot, limited). All three are trending toward playing. Lamar gets Tennessee at home.

Pick: Champion of the Sun God

Burrow My Face in TDs (1-2) vs. louieyu2000 (2-1)

Two empty slots on one side, a game-time decision on the other.

Chuck: Joe Burrow, Kenneth Walker, David Montgomery, Josh Downs, Malik Nabers, (empty TE), Brian Thomas Jr., (empty FLEX), DET
Louie: Tyler Shough, Jonathan Taylor, Bucky Irving, Justin Jefferson, Drake London, Tucker Kraft, Tetairoa McMillan, D'Andre Swift, MIN

Start with the obvious problem. Chuck's lineup has seven players in it. No tight end, no flex. Juwan Johnson and Braelon Allen are both on the bench, along with Kyle Monangai and KC Concepcion. Every one of them scores more than zero.

There's a second opportunity here. Puka Nacua is on Chuck's IR and practiced Wednesday for the first time in two weeks. He's expected to play. Activating him takes a roster spot, and Josh Jacobs on the exempt list is the obvious cut.

Chuck has been the lowest scorer in the league two weeks running, and last week he did it with a perfect lineup. This week the mistake is his, and it's easy to fix. Walker (82.2 in three weeks) and Burrow against Jacksonville give him a real foundation.

Louie's issues are less obvious. Tyler Shough is starting over Matthew Stafford again. Last week that call was right by 1.4 points. This week Stafford gets Puka back and Shough plays the Monday nighter against Atlanta. It's close enough to defend.

Harder to defend: Kraft over Ferguson. Jake Ferguson has outscored Tucker Kraft from Louie's bench two weeks running, and leads him 32.2 to 19.6 on the season. Last week that gap was bigger than his 4.34-point loss.

Then there's Jefferson. He didn't practice, and Bucky Irving has a glute injury and has lost his quarterback. Louie has decent players on the bench, but the best of them (Metcalf) locks tonight.

Pick: louieyu2000 — unless Chuck fills his lineup

Fudge Friends (1-2) vs. alindeman (1-2)

The team that lost to its own bench against the team that won by benching a zero.

Fudge Friends: Trevor Lawrence, Derrick Henry, Ashton Jeanty, Ja'Marr Chase, DJ Moore, Tyler Warren, Bhayshul Tuten, Deebo Samuel, PIT
Lindeman: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Jeremiyah Love, Rome Odunze, Emeka Egbuka, Sam LaPorta, Dalton Kincaid, Jordan Addison, BAL

Last week Fudge Friends' optimal lineup would have won by 0.12. The missed points were all at receiver: Xavier Worthy (4.0) started while Deebo Samuel (18.4) sat on the bench. That's fixed now. Deebo is in the flex and Worthy is on the bench.

This is a clean, strong lineup. Derrick Henry gets Tennessee at home and has scored 74.9 in three weeks. Chase has 51.3 in the last two weeks. Lawrence against Cincinnati could be a shootout, and that game also features Chase. The Pittsburgh defense plays tonight against Cleveland. Goedert is correctly benched again.

The only watch item is DJ Moore, who was limited with a shoulder injury. He has been unpredictable all year (22.0, −0.1, 12.7).

Lindeman got his first win last week because he benched Rico Dowdle, and Dowdle scored zero. Purdy (32.78) is the real deal.

Around him, though, the Week 4 news hurts. Odunze (7.2, 7.3, 7.4) now catches passes from Case Keenum. Egbuka loses Baker Mayfield. Both tight ends are starting even though they combined for 11.2 points last week. Addison's 21.0 helps, and he gains the most if Jefferson sits.

Christian McCaffrey and Jeremiyah Love give him two strong running backs. Baltimore's defense hosts Tennessee. That may not be enough.

Pick: Fudge Friends

hodoryourhorses (1-2) vs. Tom DaBombadil (2-1)

The 0.44-point loser against the man who lost De'Von Achane.

Sean: Dak Prescott, Omarion Hampton, Jaylen Warren, CeeDee Lamb, Chris Olave, Travis Kelce, Jameson Williams, Rashee Rice, KC
Tom: Patrick Mahomes, James Cook, Ollie Gordon II, Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams, Trey McBride, Kenyon Sadiq, Devaughn Vele, CIN

Sean lost last week by 0.44 points, and this column covered why: Omarion Hampton scored 5.6 while starting, and Aaron Jones (14.2) and Quinshon Judkins (9.9) sat on the bench.

Hampton is starting again. His three weeks: 8.3, 17.5, 5.6. Jones gets Miami at home. Judkins plays tonight. Of the three, Hampton is the weakest choice.

Jaylen Warren is the right call again. Dowdle is ruled out tonight, so Warren gets the Pittsburgh backfield to himself after last week's 20.6. Sean's three Kansas City pieces (Kelce, Rice, the defense) visit Las Vegas. CeeDee Lamb and Dak face Houston.

Tom lost a starter for the season and paid $26 in FAAB for Ollie Gordon II. Gordon hasn't played a snap for Tom yet, and Jaylen Wright is practicing again in Miami. He also added Kenyon Sadiq this morning, put him in a flex spot, and Sleeper lists him as questionable.

Both of those moves are risks. So is Davante Adams, who has been helped by Puka Nacua's absence. Adams has 60.2 points over the last two weeks, and Nacua is now expected back.

What Tom has is solid: Mahomes (full practice) at Las Vegas, Trey McBride, Garrett Wilson (26.7 last week), and James Cook against New England. Hurts stays on the bench. Mahomes has outscored him two weeks out of three.

Pick: hodoryourhorses — if Jones starts over Hampton