Week 7 Predictions
An empty running back slot on the commissioner’s roster, a quarterback with no backup, a decision due before tonight’s 5:15 kickoff, and Kyle Pitts on a bench for the third straight week.
Last week this column went 5-for-5. First perfect week of the season. Season record: 18-for-30. It also named five lineup alarms, watched every flagged starter sit, and saw two of its ignored fixes score 14.0 and 15.9 on benches. A good week. Not a perfect one.
Week 7 has four teams on bye: Buffalo, Jacksonville, the Chargers and Washington. That takes Josh Allen, James Cook, Jayden Daniels, Trevor Lawrence, Bhayshul Tuten and Omarion Hampton off the board. For once, nobody in this league is starting a player on bye. Every one of them is on a bench.
That doesn’t mean every lineup is full. At 8:14 this morning, Arizona time, hodoryourhorses dropped Jaleel McLaughlin and left his second running back slot empty. The commissioner gets the first alarm. Blake Corum, who has scored 16.2 and 14.0 on that bench the last two weeks, is still sitting there. So is Aaron Jones.
And Patriots at Bears kicks off tonight at 5:15 p.m. Arizona time. Seven rostered starters lock with it: Drake Maye (Trimeniscus in sept), Rhamondre Stevenson and Colston Loveland (Tom DaBombadil), D’Andre Swift (louieyu2000), Luther Burden (Haasinator5), and A.J. Brown and Rome Odunze (alindeman). One bench decision has to be made before then too: ChrisConte47’s.
The Six Alarms
All six can be fixed. One has to be settled before tonight’s kickoff.
An empty running back slot — hodoryourhorses
Sean dropped Jaleel McLaughlin (9.5 last week) this morning and didn’t fill the spot. As of filing, his second RB slot is blank. That’s a guaranteed zero, and nothing else on this page matters as much. The bench has three healthy options. Aaron Jones is back from Minnesota’s bye and has scored 10.5 or more in all four games he’s played (60.2 total, 15.1 a game). Blake Corum has scored 16.2 and 14.0 on this bench the last two weeks. Quinshon Judkins (ankle) was limited Wednesday after missing Week 6. Hampton is on bye. The column has named Corum twice. Jones has the steadier sample. Start one of them. Either one beats zero by double digits.
Mike Evans — ChrisConte47 is starting him, and the backup plays tonight
Ribs and Achilles tendinitis, did not practice Wednesday. He left Monday’s game in the second quarter. Kyle Shanahan said the team will “manage it this week” and didn’t say whether he plays Sunday at Atlanta. Here’s the problem. Josh Allen, Khalil Shakir, Brenton Strange and Parker Washington are all on bye. Conte’s only bench player with a game this week is TreVeyon Henderson, and he plays tonight at 5:15 p.m. Arizona time. He has no injury designation and scored 3.0 last week. If Conte wants Henderson as the Evans insurance, it has to happen before kickoff, before San Francisco says anything. The other route is a free-agent receiver who plays Sunday, picked up now so the swap is ready when Evans’s status comes out.
Lamar Jackson — Champion of the Sun God is starting him, with no backup this week
Ankle, limited Wednesday, his first practice since spraining it on October 4. ESPN reported he was still limping in the facility. Baltimore hosts Cincinnati on Sunday. Last week Max had Jayden Daniels, and Daniels scored 21.0. This week Daniels is on bye, and Max has no other quarterback. The cleanest hedge is the one sitting on the waiver wire: Tyler Huntley, Baltimore’s backup, plays in the same game. Add him now. Ladd McConkey (concussion, and the Chargers are on bye) is the obvious drop. Then if Lamar is inactive Sunday, Huntley goes in before kickoff. Max leads the league in points. He can’t afford a zero at quarterback in a game against the 5-1 team.
Breece Hall — Burrow My Face in TDs is starting him
Quad, did not practice Wednesday. He’s missed three straight games. Coach Aaron Glenn didn’t rule him out and said Hall could return to some work Thursday or Friday. The fix is already on Chuck’s bench and plays in the same game: Braelon Allen (8.7, 18.6 and 12.4 in his three weeks with Hall out). Jets–Dolphins is Sunday, so Chuck can wait for inactives. If Hall doesn’t practice fully by Friday, start Allen. Two smaller notes. Josh Jacobs starts in the flex in his season debut. The NFL took him off the commissioner’s exempt list Monday, and Green Bay expects him to play with a limited workload. And at quarterback, Jordan Love (back) was limited Wednesday. Joe Burrow, back from his bye, averaged 20.9 in five games. Love is the starter for now. Burrow is a real alternative if Thursday’s Packers report goes the wrong way.
Tyler Allgeier over Kamara, and Kyle Pitts on the bench again — Haasinator5
Last week Haas left 28.40 on his bench, the most in the league, and lost by 5.20. Two of the same decisions are back. Allgeier starts at running back again after scoring 5.8 on 18 carries. Alvin Kamara (back, limited Wednesday, expected to play) scored 14.9 on the bench. And Kyle Pitts, 15.2 and 23.0 on the bench the last two weeks, is on the bench a third time. Meanwhile, Saquon Barkley is starting in the flex. He hasn’t practiced since the Week 4 hamstring injury, but NFL Network reports he’s expected to practice Thursday and play Monday night. The fix: move Barkley to RB in place of Allgeier and put Pitts in the flex. If Barkley isn’t practicing by Friday, Kamara takes the RB spot instead. Philadelphia doesn’t play until Monday, so that call can’t wait for inactives.
Three more Wednesday DNPs — Fudge Friends, alindeman, louieyu2000
Tyler Warren (groin) didn’t practice after missing Week 6. He’s in Fudge Friends’ flex. Xavier Worthy (14.3 last week) is the bench option. Emeka Egbuka (concussion, foot) didn’t practice either, and he’s alindeman’s best receiver this season (71.1). Jordan Addison practiced in full and is the only healthy receiver on that bench. Bucky Irving (illness) missed Wednesday for louieyu2000. Illness is usually the most fixable thing on a report, but RJ Harvey (14.6 last week) is the backup if it lingers. All three play Sunday, so all three decisions can wait for Friday.
Standings
Through six weeks.
| # | Team | Record | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trimeniscus in sept | 6-0 | 836.90 |
| 2 | louieyu2000 | 5-1 | 807.54 |
| 3 | Champion of the Sun God | 4-2 | 862.14 |
| 4 | ChrisConte47 | 3-3 | 803.96 |
| 5 | hodoryourhorses | 3-3 | 789.26 |
| 6 | Tom DaBombadil | 3-3 | 705.80 |
| 7 | Fudge Friends | 2-4 | 755.70 |
| 8 | alindeman | 2-4 | 646.60 |
| 9 | Haasinator5 | 1-5 | 751.84 |
| 10 | Burrow My Face in TDs | 1-5 | 736.98 |
Injury Board
Only players rostered in this league. Checked against Wednesday practice reports, tonight’s final Patriots and Bears reports, and Sleeper. Thursday’s reports for Sunday and Monday teams were not out at filing.
Out or effectively out
| Player | Team | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | KC | Hamstring, knee. Did not practice Wednesday. (hodoryourhorses, IR) |
| David Montgomery | HOU | Groin. Did not practice Wednesday. Missed Week 6. (Burrow My Face in TDs, bench) |
| Kyle Monangai | CHI | Thumb, toe. Ruled out for tonight. (Burrow My Face in TDs, IR) |
| De’Von Achane | MIA | Torn ACL. Season over. Claimed off waivers for $12. (Burrow My Face in TDs, IR) |
| Deebo Samuel | SF | Hamstring. Did not practice Wednesday. (Fudge Friends, bench) |
| DJ Moore | BUF | AC joint sprain. Out in Sleeper, and Buffalo is on bye. (Fudge Friends, bench) |
| Ladd McConkey | LAC | Concussion. Out in Sleeper, and the Chargers are on bye. (Champion of the Sun God, bench) |
| Davante Adams | LAR | Ruptured tendon. Out 6 to 10 weeks. (Tom DaBombadil, IR) |
| Romeo Doubs | NE | Shoulder. On IR. (Tom DaBombadil, IR) |
Genuinely in doubt
| Player | Team | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | Ankle. Limited Wednesday, first practice since October 4. Missed two games. (Champion of the Sun God, starting) |
| Mike Evans | SF | Ribs, Achilles tendinitis. Did not practice Wednesday. (ChrisConte47, starting) |
| Breece Hall | NYJ | Quad. Did not practice Wednesday. Missed three games. Not ruled out. (Burrow My Face in TDs, starting) |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI | Hamstring. Hasn’t practiced since Week 4. Expected to practice Thursday and play Monday. (Haasinator5, starting) |
| Tyler Warren | IND | Groin. Did not practice Wednesday. Missed Week 6. (Fudge Friends, starting) |
| Emeka Egbuka | TB | Concussion, foot. Did not practice Wednesday. (alindeman, starting) |
| Bucky Irving | TB | Illness. Did not practice Wednesday. (louieyu2000, starting) |
| Jeremiyah Love | ARI | Ankle. Did not practice Wednesday. Missed Week 6. (alindeman, bench) |
| Travis Kelce | KC | Ankle. Limited Wednesday. (hodoryourhorses, starting) |
| Brock Bowers | LV | Hamstring, calf. Limited Wednesday. (Trimeniscus in sept, starting) |
| Quinshon Judkins | CLE | Ankle. Limited Wednesday. Missed Week 6. (hodoryourhorses, bench) |
| KC Concepcion | CLE | Calf, quad. Limited Wednesday. (Burrow My Face in TDs, starting) |
Cleared or trending up
| Player | Team | Status |
|---|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson | NE | No designation for tonight. Played Week 6. (ChrisConte47, bench) |
| A.J. Brown | NE | No designation for tonight. Back from IR last week. (alindeman, starting) |
| Josh Jacobs | GB | Reinstated from the commissioner’s exempt list Monday. Not on Wednesday’s report. Expected to debut Sunday. (Burrow My Face in TDs, starting) |
| Jordan Love | GB | Back. Limited Wednesday. Expected to play. (Burrow My Face in TDs, starting) |
| Christian Watson | GB | Ankle. Limited Wednesday. Expected to play. (Trimeniscus in sept, starting) |
| Matthew Golden | GB | Shoulder. Limited Wednesday. Expected to play. (Champion of the Sun God, starting) |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | Ankle. Limited Wednesday. (louieyu2000, starting) |
| Jordan Addison | MIN | Hamstring. Full practice. (alindeman, bench) |
| Alvin Kamara | NO | Back. Limited Wednesday. Played Week 6. (Haasinator5, bench) |
| Jaylen Waddle | DEN | Chest. Limited Wednesday. (ChrisConte47, starting) |
| Denzel Boston | CLE | Foot. Limited Wednesday. (Champion of the Sun God, bench) |
| Zach Charbonnet | SEA | Knee, PUP. Full practice Wednesday. (ChrisConte47, PUP) |
| Jordan Mason | MIN | Thumb. Full practice. Designated to return from IR. (Haasinator5, IR) |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | Knee. Full practice. (Tom DaBombadil, starting) |
| Nico Collins, Jonathan Taylor, Chuba Hubbard | HOU, IND, CAR | Rest days, not injuries. (ChrisConte47, louieyu2000, Trimeniscus in sept, all starting) |
Other teams’ injuries reach more rosters than it looks. New England ruled out three cornerbacks for tonight: Carlton Davis, Channing Canada and Karon Prunty. That helps Rome Odunze (alindeman), Luther Burden (Haasinator5) and Colston Loveland (Tom DaBombadil). With Monangai out, D’Andre Swift (louieyu2000) is Chicago’s back. Jacobs’s return is the end of the Packers’ rushing committee. Barkley’s return would turn Dameon Pierce (Tom DaBombadil, 15.0 last week) back into a backup. If Lamar sits, it’s Huntley throwing to Zay Flowers (Champion of the Sun God) and handing off to Derrick Henry (Fudge Friends). And Evans and Deebo Samuel both missing practice leaves more of San Francisco’s targets for Christian McCaffrey (alindeman) and George Kittle (Champion of the Sun God).
The Matchups
All five, with picks.
Fudge Friends (2-4) vs. Trimeniscus in sept (6-0)
The only perfect lineup of Week 6 against the only unbeaten team.
Fudge Friends: Kirk Cousins, Derrick Henry, Ashton Jeanty, Ja’Marr Chase, Carnell Tate, Dallas Goedert, Tyler Warren, Tony Pollard, PIT
Buscho: Drake Maye, Bijan Robinson, Chuba Hubbard, George Pickens, Christian Watson, Brock Bowers, Tee Higgins, Michael Wilson, DEN
Fudge Friends scored 136.84 last week, the high, with a lineup that couldn’t have been better. This week they lose the two players who did the most: Trevor Lawrence (28.34) and Bhayshul Tuten (24.7) are on bye. Kirk Cousins, picked up Wednesday, starts at quarterback. Ja’Marr Chase (80.9) is back from his bye. The backfield is still Henry (116.8) and Jeanty (100.4). The question mark is Tyler Warren in the flex, after a Wednesday DNP.
Buscho is 6-0 and averages 139.5. Last week he won on an off day, 105.60, with a running back who never touched the ball. Tee Higgins is back from Cincinnati’s bye and goes into the flex. Two starters were limited Wednesday: Watson (ankle) and Bowers (hamstring, calf). Michael Mayer, who outscored Bowers by 5.5 on the bench last week, plays in the same Raiders game, so that hedge is still there. Maye (24.3 last week) plays tonight at Chicago, so Buscho’s quarterback number is on the board before anyone else’s.
Pick: Trimeniscus in septChampion of the Sun God (4-2) vs. louieyu2000 (5-1)
Second and third in the standings. The points leader against the luckiest schedule.
Max: Lamar Jackson, Kyren Williams, Chase Brown, Jalen Coker, Zay Flowers, George Kittle, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Matthew Golden, SEA
Louie: Matthew Stafford, Jonathan Taylor, Bucky Irving, Tetairoa McMillan, Drake London, Jake Ferguson, Justin Jefferson, D’Andre Swift, MIN
Max leads the league with 862.14 points, 143.7 a week. He gets Amon-Ra St. Brown (104.2) and Chase Brown back from byes. Matthew Golden has scored 20.3 and 22.4 the last two weeks. The whole game turns on quarterback. Lamar was limited Wednesday in his first practice in 17 days, Daniels is on bye, and there’s no third option on the roster. With Lamar or Huntley in the slot, this is one of the best lineups in the league. With an empty one, it isn’t.
Louie is 5-1 and has given up 659.92 points, the fewest in the league by 34.10. That’s helped. His team is good too: Taylor (118.5), Swift (103.8), Stafford (112.4). Swift plays tonight against a Patriots secondary missing three corners, with Monangai out. Two things to watch. Irving missed Wednesday with an illness. And Jake Ferguson starts at tight end again after 4.1, 4.9 and 3.3 the last three weeks. Tucker Kraft has outscored him in four of six weeks and sits on the bench. Last week Louie also left Tyler Shough’s 26.96 on the bench and won by 49.28. He can’t count on that margin twice.
Pick: Champion of the Sun God — if a Baltimore quarterback starts for him. If the QB slot is a zero, louieyu2000.hodoryourhorses (3-3) vs. ChrisConte47 (3-3)
Two 3-3 teams. One with an empty slot, one with an empty bench.
Sean: Dak Prescott, EMPTY, Jaylen Warren, CeeDee Lamb, Chris Olave, Travis Kelce, Germie Bernard, Jameson Williams, KC
Conte: C.J. Stroud, Jahmyr Gibbs, Emanuel Wilson, Nico Collins, Mike Evans, Tyler Higbee, Jaylen Waddle, Malik Washington, CLE
Conte gets Jahmyr Gibbs back. Without him last week, Conte scored 75.00, the lowest score of the season. With him, Gibbs has averaged 30.7 a game, and his 153.7 points are third among rostered players, behind Smith-Njigba and Allen. Allen is on bye, so C.J. Stroud, a $2 waiver claim, starts at quarterback. Tyler Higbee replaces Harold Fannin Jr., who was dropped for him. Emanuel Wilson scored 5.2 last week and starts again. And Evans didn’t practice Wednesday, with no Sunday backup on the bench.
Sean’s filled slots are solid. Lamb has scored 15.4 or more in five of six weeks. Olave has scored 14.3 or more in five of six. Warren is coming off 9.8, a week after 42.8. Germie Bernard, who this column waved off last week, caught 11 passes for 25.7. Jameson Williams is back from his bye. But all of that counts for less with a zero at running back. Fill it with Jones or Corum and Sean’s lineup is deeper than Conte’s. Leave it empty and Gibbs alone covers the difference.
Pick: hodoryourhorses — if he fills the RB slot. If it stays empty, ChrisConte47.Burrow My Face in TDs (1-5) vs. alindeman (2-4)
Ninth and tenth in points. The loser stays in the shirt race.
Chuck: Jordan Love, Kenneth Walker, Breece Hall, Puka Nacua, Malik Nabers, Pat Freiermuth, KC Concepcion, Josh Jacobs, HOU
Lindeman: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Woody Marks, A.J. Brown, Emeka Egbuka, Sam LaPorta, Wan’Dale Robinson, Rome Odunze, BAL
Chuck is 1-5 and has lost two straight weeks with one of the cleanest lineups in the league. He has the two best players in this game: Kenneth Walker (141.0, 28.2 a game in the five he’s played) and Malik Nabers (28.5 and 29.1 the last two weeks). Puka Nacua has 27.7, 37.7 and 14.0 the last three weeks. The tight end spot changed: Juwan Johnson, who scored 0.0 last week, is gone, and Pat Freiermuth starts. The risks are Hall’s quad and Jacobs’s first game in months. Allen is the hedge for the first. Josh Downs (8.9 a game) is the hedge for the second. Chuck also spent $12 on De’Von Achane, who tore his ACL. In a keeper league, that’s a 2027 move.
Lindeman has scored 646.60 points, 59.20 fewer than anyone else. He has Purdy (139.0, the most of any starting quarterback this week) and McCaffrey, whose 30.7 last week was the best game in the league. Sam LaPorta is back from Detroit’s bye. A.J. Brown and Rome Odunze play tonight. After that it thins out: Woody Marks scored 10.1 in his only week, Wan’Dale Robinson 5.2, and Egbuka missed Wednesday.
Pick: Burrow My Face in TDsHaasinator5 (1-5) vs. Tom DaBombadil (3-3)
The league’s best bench against a roster that keeps losing pieces.
Haas: Jared Goff, Tyler Allgeier, Javonte Williams, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Luther Burden, Isaiah Likely, DeVonta Smith, Saquon Barkley, NYJ
Tom: Patrick Mahomes, Ollie Gordon, Rhamondre Stevenson, Garrett Wilson, Devaughn Vele, Trey McBride, Colston Loveland, Mike Gesicki, LAR
Haas has the best receiver in the league. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 168.9 points and has scored 22.8 or more in five of six weeks. Isaiah Likely has 32.4 and 23.9 the last two. Goff is back from his bye: 19.36, 20.48 and 28.94 in his three games for Haas. Haas has also given up 890.20 points, the most in the league by 40.62, and been outscored on his own bench. The alarm above is the whole story. Barkley to RB, Pitts to the flex, and this is the stronger lineup.
Tom has had a rough week off the field. Davante Adams is out 6 to 10 weeks. Romeo Doubs is on IR. Jalen Hurts and Achane were dropped. Two tight ends start in this lineup: Loveland, finally in the flex after 18.5 on the bench last week, and Mike Gesicki in the other flex, with 7.4 points on the season. There isn’t a clean upgrade. Dameon Pierce scored 15.0 last week, but Barkley’s return should push him back to the bench in Philadelphia. Stevenson (3.6 last week) and Loveland play tonight. Ollie Gordon is back from Miami’s bye after 18.0 and 14.8.
Pick: Haasinator5Week 7 Picks
On the record. Season: 18-for-30.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
| Fudge Friends vs. Trimeniscus in sept | Trimeniscus in sept |
| Champion of the Sun God vs. louieyu2000 | Champion of the Sun God (louieyu2000 if Max’s QB slot is a zero) |
| hodoryourhorses vs. ChrisConte47 | hodoryourhorses (ChrisConte47 if the RB slot stays empty) |
| Burrow My Face in TDs vs. alindeman | Burrow My Face in TDs |
| Haasinator5 vs. Tom DaBombadil | Haasinator5 |
Five Things to Watch
What actually decides this week.
1. Tonight locks seven starters
Patriots–Bears at 5:15 p.m. Arizona time. New England is without three cornerbacks, which is good news for Odunze, Burden and Loveland. Conte has to decide on Henderson before anyone knows about Evans.
2. The commissioner’s empty slot
Jones or Corum. Either beats zero. Sean gets the same advice as everyone else, and this week he needs it most.
3. Lamar, or Huntley
Daniels is on bye. Max has one quarterback and he’s limping. Adding Baltimore’s backup now lets him wait for Sunday’s inactives without risking a zero.
4. Pitts, for the third time
38.2 points on Haas’s bench in two weeks. Barkley’s return gives Haas an easy way to fit him in. The flex is open.
5. Can anyone beat Buscho?
He’s 6-0 and won last week on 105.60. Fudge Friends just played a perfect lineup, but without Lawrence and Tuten. Chase’s return is their best shot.