Week 5 Predictions

Champion of the Sun God (3-1) vs. Trimeniscus in sept (4-0)

The league’s highest scorer against its only unbeaten team.

Max: Jayden Daniels, Kyren Williams, Chase Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Zay Flowers, George Kittle, Denzel Boston, Matthew Golden, SEA
Buscho: Drake Maye, Bijan Robinson, Cam Skattebo, George Pickens, Tee Higgins, Brock Bowers, Christian Watson, Michael Wilson, DEN

This column has picked against Buscho two weeks running and been wrong both times. He’s left 67.48 points on his bench across those two weeks and won both. This week he’s cleaned it up. Drake Maye is starting after his 27.16 on the bench, and Michael Wilson (16.5 last week) is in the flex.

Bijan has scored 30 or more three times in four weeks. Bowers has 48.2 in two games since returning. The risk is health. Skattebo, Higgins, and Bowers were all limited Wednesday, and Pickens plays tonight. Maye’s weekly scores have swung from 5.8 to 27.2.

Max leads the league by 38.92 points and played the cleanest lineup in the league last week. Kyren Williams is coming off 36.7. St. Brown and Flowers have both scored 25+ twice. Daniels is back as a starter with Lamar sidelined. Daniels has three games this year: 17.7, 14.7, and a 0.0 in the game where he got hurt.

The one concern is Flowers, who missed Wednesday practice. Baltimore plays Sunday night, so Max has time to see the reports. Stefon Diggs is the bench option, and he’s listed questionable too.

Pick: Champion of the Sun God. Third time trying.

Burrow My Face in TDs (1-3) vs. ChrisConte47 (2-2)

An empty slot against the league’s best quarterback and running back.

Chuck: Joe Burrow, Kyle Monangai, David Montgomery, Puka Nacua, Malik Nabers, Juwan Johnson, Josh Downs, Braelon Allen, (empty DEF)
Conte: Josh Allen, Jahmyr Gibbs, Emanuel Wilson, Parker Washington, Jaylen Waddle, Harold Fannin Jr., Mike Evans, Nico Collins, JAX

Last week Chuck left 31.50 points on his bench and lost by 2.22, with Monangai’s 28.0 sitting there. He’s fixed that part: Monangai starts, Walker is on bye. But Montgomery stays in the lineup after scoring 4.4, 6.8, and 4.3 since Week 1. Monangai and Nabers both missed Wednesday practice. And there’s no defense.

Burrow has gone up every week: 15.2, 16.2, 22.6, 25.7. He gets Miami. Nacua is back to full strength after 27.7 and plays Monday night against Buffalo.

Conte has the two best players in this game. Josh Allen has 116.5 points and Gibbs has 116.0, and nobody in the league tops either at their position. Collins scored 30.8 off IR. Emanuel Wilson scored 27.0. The leak is Parker Washington, starting again after a 2.0 while Khalil Shakir (13.2 last week) sits. That swap would have won him last week’s game. Evans was limited with the rib injury but played through it last week.

Pick: ChrisConte47

hodoryourhorses (2-2) vs. Haasinator5 (0-4)

The commissioner’s week is mostly over by Thursday night.

Sean: Dak Prescott, Aaron Jones, Jaylen Warren, CeeDee Lamb, Chris Olave, T.J. Hockenson, Jameson Williams, Quinshon Judkins, CLE
Haas: Jared Goff, Will Shipley, Javonte Williams, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Luther Burden, Isaiah Likely, DeVonta Smith, Courtland Sutton, CHI

Sean took the hint. Quinshon Judkins, the best back on his roster last week at 21.6 on the bench, is starting. Hampton is benched. With Rashee Rice and Kansas City on bye, he paid $7 for T.J. Hockenson, who caught 13 passes for 119 yards last week, and swapped KC’s defense for Cleveland’s at the Jets. This is the cleanest lineup he’s set all season.

It also starts early. Dak and CeeDee play tonight against a Tampa Bay team without Mayfield or safety Antoine Winfield Jr. Lamb is averaging 28.1 and is coming off 41.3. Olave and Jones both got rest days Wednesday rather than injuries.

Haas is 0-4 and has given up 624.32 points, 43.52 more than any other team. He has the best receiver in the league, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (120.7). Javonte Williams (31.3 last week) is also playing tonight. But the rest of the roster is shaky. Smith hasn’t practiced. Likely is listed questionable. Sutton has 4.5 points in two games. Will Shipley is starting at running back as a Saquon hedge, which is smart, but it’s also a guess.

Pick: hodoryourhorses

Tom DaBombadil (2-2) vs. alindeman (2-2)

The two lowest-scoring teams, both with a flex problem they can fix.

Tom: Jalen Hurts, James Cook, Ollie Gordon II, Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams, Trey McBride, Kenyon Sadiq, Devaughn Vele, CIN
Lindeman: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Jeremiyah Love, Rome Odunze, Emeka Egbuka, Sam LaPorta, Dalton Kincaid, Jordan Addison, BAL

Tom averages 115.8. Lindeman averages 112.5 and has won two straight games by a combined 0.78 points. They’re the two lowest-scoring teams in the league.

Mahomes is on bye, so Hurts starts by default and plays at 6:30 a.m. in London. Mahomes has outscored him three weeks out of four. Ollie Gordon II (18.0) was a good pickup. McBride has gone down every week: 24.5, 18.1, 16.5, 10.1. Then there’s the flex. Sadiq’s 0.0 is the biggest fixable problem in this game.

Lindeman has the best quarterback in this game. Purdy is averaging 26.1 and has scored at least 21 every week. McCaffrey is at Seattle, and Love is limited but practicing. The rest is shaky. Odunze now has Bagent at QB. Egbuka plays tonight without Mayfield. Addison didn’t practice. Kincaid keeps starting over Keaton Mitchell.

Pick: Tom DaBombadil — if Sadiq sits. If he starts, alindeman.

Fudge Friends (1-3) vs. louieyu2000 (3-1)

The team that keeps losing to its bench against the team that keeps winning despite its bench.

Fudge Friends: Trevor Lawrence, Derrick Henry, Ashton Jeanty, Deebo Samuel, DJ Moore, Tyler Warren, Bhayshul Tuten, Carnell Tate, PIT
Louie: Tyler Shough, Jonathan Taylor, Bucky Irving, DK Metcalf, Drake London, Tucker Kraft, Dontayvion Wicks, D’Andre Swift, MIN

Fudge Friends have lost to their own bench two weeks running. In Week 3 the optimal lineup would have won by 0.12. In Week 4 they lost by 0.34 with 26.10 points on the bench. This week the lesson seems to have landed. Carnell Tate (21.5 on the bench last week) is starting, and Chase is on the bench in concussion protocol.

The backfield is the best in this game. Derrick Henry has 90.8 points, Ashton Jeanty has 73.9, and Tuten hasn’t scored under 9.8 all season. Lawrence and Tuten play in London. The question mark is DJ Moore, who left last week with the same shoulder injury again. Buffalo doesn’t play until Monday, so Fudge Friends won’t know his status until late, and their best bench receiver, Xavier Worthy, is on bye.

Louie is 3-1, but his lineup keeps getting rescued. Last week McMillan’s 45.2 covered for 24.90 points left on the bench. McMillan is on bye this week. Shough has a hurt left hand. Irving plays tonight without his quarterback. Swift missed practice. And Wicks is back in the flex. Jonathan Taylor (86.2) is the best player in the game. Louie needs him to be.

Pick: Fudge Friends — upset of the week