Week 6 Predictions
A starting quarterback on bye, two holes in the commissioner’s flex, a call that has to be made before tonight’s 5:15 kickoff, and a column that finally picks Buscho.
Last week this column went 2-for-5. Season record: 13-for-25, barely better than a coin flip. It also picked against Trimeniscus in sept for the third week in a row and lost all three. Buscho is 5-0 and just set the season high. This week the column stops fighting it.
Week 6 is the first real bye-week test. Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami and Minnesota are all off. That takes Jahmyr Gibbs (153.7 points, the most of any rostered player), Amon-Ra St. Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson and Joe Burrow off the board. Four of the five are on benches, where they belong. Burrow is starting at quarterback for Burrow My Face in TDs.
Two familiar names are back, too. Blake Corum, who scored 16.2 on Sean’s bench in a 0.90-point loss, is now the obvious fix for Sean’s flex. And Saquon Barkley, out again, leaves Haasinator5 a decision he has to make before anyone knows whether Barkley plays.
And Seahawks at Broncos kicks off tonight at 5:15 p.m. Arizona time. Nine rostered players who can start lock with it: Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Courtland Sutton (Haasinator5), Emanuel Wilson and Jaylen Waddle (ChrisConte47), J.K. Dobbins and the Seattle defense (Champion of the Sun God), RJ Harvey (louieyu2000), and Bo Nix and the Denver defense (Trimeniscus in sept). Any swap involving them has to happen before kickoff.
The Five Alarms
All five can be fixed today. One has to be settled before tonight’s kickoff.
Joe Burrow, on bye — Burrow My Face in TDs is starting him
Cincinnati is off this week. Burrow is in the QB slot, and that’s a guaranteed zero. Jordan Love, a $5 waiver pickup, is on the bench and plays Dallas Sunday night. Start him. The flex is thinner. Kalif Raymond (6.0 points in two weeks) starts, with Brian Thomas Jr. (0.0 last week) and KC Concepcion (concussion, limited Wednesday) behind him. There’s no clear upgrade in the flex. There is one at quarterback.
Rashee Rice — hodoryourhorses is starting him
Hamstring and knee, did not practice Wednesday, and reports have him missing Sunday unless he’s limited Thursday. Kansas City doesn’t play until 1:25 p.m. Arizona time. The real reason to act now is Sean’s other flex: Quinshon Judkins (ankle) also missed Wednesday practice, and he plays at 10 a.m. Jameson Williams and Aaron Jones are on bye. Germie Bernard hasn’t scored for Sean yet. That leaves Blake Corum, last seen scoring 16.2 on this bench in a 0.90-point loss. Put him in for Rice. Sean also has an open bench spot, so a free-agent back costs nothing as Judkins insurance. The commissioner has lost two games this season by less than a point. Don’t make it three.
Saquon Barkley — Haasinator5 is starting him, and the decision is due tonight
Hamstring, did not practice Wednesday, and multiple reports have him out this week. Haas has no other running back on the roster. If Barkley sits, Alvin Kamara moves to RB and a receiver takes the flex. The obvious receiver is Courtland Sutton, who plays tonight at 5:15 p.m. Arizona time. Haas would have to commit to him before Philadelphia says a word. The option that keeps Sunday open is Keon Coleman (7.7 in his only week on the roster). With DJ Moore out with an AC joint sprain, Coleman should see more targets at Las Vegas at 1:25 p.m. Kamara (back) was limited again. He scored 2.6 last week in the same spot.
Lamar Jackson — Champion of the Sun God is starting him
Ankle, did not practice Wednesday, a week after missing Baltimore’s overtime win. The Ravens play at Cleveland at 10 a.m. Arizona time. The alternative, Jayden Daniels, scored 32.26 last week, but he doesn’t play until Monday night. So Max can’t wait for Lamar’s inactive status and then pivot. If Lamar isn’t at least limited by Friday, start Daniels. A second, smaller problem: Jalen Coker is starting at WR with no points since Week 3. He missed Week 4 with a quad injury, and Carolina was on bye in Week 5. He practiced in full Wednesday, so he looks ready. Stefon Diggs is on the bench, questionable in Sleeper, and didn’t play last week.
Jeremiyah Love — alindeman is starting him
Ankle, did not practice Wednesday. He ran 12 times for 22 yards last week, for 2.2 points. Arizona plays at the Rams at 1:05 p.m. Arizona time, so the decision can wait for Friday’s report. The fix is the same one this column named last week, and alindeman didn’t use it: Keaton Mitchell, who scored 5.9 on the bench. Chris Rodriguez is the other option. Newly added Woody Marks starts in the other flex now that David Montgomery is out in Houston. He faces a Jacksonville defense allowing 2.9 yards per carry, and he locks at 6:30 a.m. in London.
Standings
Through five weeks.
| # | Team | Record | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trimeniscus in sept | 5-0 | 731.30 |
| 2 | louieyu2000 | 4-1 | 683.26 |
| 3 | Champion of the Sun God | 3-2 | 743.64 |
| 4 | ChrisConte47 | 3-2 | 728.96 |
| 5 | Tom DaBombadil | 3-2 | 612.62 |
| 6 | hodoryourhorses | 2-3 | 665.94 |
| 7 | alindeman | 2-3 | 539.54 |
| 8 | Haasinator5 | 1-4 | 620.20 |
| 9 | Burrow My Face in TDs | 1-4 | 619.44 |
| 10 | Fudge Friends | 1-4 | 618.86 |
Injury Board
Only players rostered in this league. Checked against Wednesday practice reports and Sleeper. Thursday’s reports for Sunday teams were not out at filing.
Out or effectively out
| Player | Team | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | PHI | Hamstring. Did not practice Wednesday. Reported out this week. (Haasinator5, starting) |
| Rashee Rice | KC | Hamstring, knee. Did not practice Wednesday. Expected to miss. (hodoryourhorses, starting) |
| David Montgomery | HOU | Groin. Did not practice. Ruled out, likely for multiple weeks. (Burrow My Face in TDs, bench) |
| Breece Hall | NYJ | Quad. Did not practice. Out this week. (Burrow My Face in TDs, IR) |
| Kyle Monangai | CHI | Turf toe. Did not practice. Out this week. (Burrow My Face in TDs, IR) |
| TreVeyon Henderson | NE | High ankle sprain. Limited Wednesday, but reported to miss “multiple” weeks. (ChrisConte47, bench) |
| Zach Charbonnet | SEA | Knee, PUP. Ruled out for tonight. (ChrisConte47, PUP) |
| Deebo Samuel | SF | Hamstring. Expected to miss a few weeks. (Fudge Friends, bench) |
| DJ Moore | BUF | AC joint sprain. Inactive Monday. No Buffalo practice report found at filing. (Fudge Friends, bench) |
| DeVonta Smith | PHI | Hamstring, toe. Did not practice Wednesday. (Haasinator5, bench) |
| Roman Wilson | PIT | Finger. Did not practice. Expected to miss multiple weeks. (hodoryourhorses, IR) |
| De’Von Achane | MIA | Torn ACL. Season over. (Tom DaBombadil, IR) |
Genuinely in doubt
| Player | Team | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | Ankle. Did not practice Wednesday. Missed Week 5. (Champion of the Sun God, starting) |
| Quinshon Judkins | CLE | Ankle. Did not practice. Out of the walking boot, day-to-day. (hodoryourhorses, starting) |
| Jeremiyah Love | ARI | Ankle. Did not practice. (alindeman, starting) |
| Brock Bowers | LV | Knee. Limited Wednesday. (Trimeniscus in sept, starting) |
| Chris Olave | NO | Illness. Did not practice. Not considered a concern for Sunday. (hodoryourhorses, starting) |
| A.J. Brown | NE | High ankle sprain, IR. Limited Wednesday. Week 7 looks likelier. (alindeman, IR) |
| KC Concepcion | CLE | Concussion. Limited. Has to clear protocol. (Burrow My Face in TDs, bench) |
| Ladd McConkey | LAC | Foot. Limited after missing Week 5. (Champion of the Sun God, bench) |
| Stefon Diggs | WAS | Questionable in Sleeper. Didn’t play Week 5. No Washington practice report found at filing. (Champion of the Sun God, bench) |
Cleared or trending up
| Player | Team | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | Ankle. Full practice Wednesday. No designation for tonight. (Haasinator5, starting) |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | Thigh. Full practice after last week’s quad bruise. (hodoryourhorses, starting) |
| Jalen Coker | CAR | Quad. Full practice. (Champion of the Sun God, starting) |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | Hamstring. Full practice. Expected back Sunday. (alindeman, bench) |
| Alvin Kamara | NO | Back. Limited. Expected to play. (Haasinator5, starting) |
| Josh Downs | IND | Hamstring and rest. Limited. Expected to play. (Burrow My Face in TDs, starting) |
| Denzel Boston | CLE | Foot. Limited. Expected to play. (Champion of the Sun God, starting) |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | Foot. Full practice. (Fudge Friends, starting) |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | Knee. Full practice. (Tom DaBombadil, starting) |
| Drake Maye | NE | Right shoulder. Full practice. (Trimeniscus in sept, starting) |
| Nico Collins | HOU | Limited, rest day. (ChrisConte47, starting) |
Other teams’ injuries reach more rosters than it looks. Denver ruled out Patrick Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga for tonight, which helps Smith-Njigba (Haasinator5) and hurts the Denver defense (Trimeniscus in sept). Caleb Williams is back for Rome Odunze (alindeman), Luther Burden (Haasinator5), Colston Loveland (Tom DaBombadil), D’Andre Swift (louieyu2000) and Kalif Raymond (Burrow My Face in TDs). Michael Penix Jr. (ribs) practiced in full, which protects Drake London (louieyu2000) and Bijan Robinson (Trimeniscus in sept). Henderson’s ankle makes Rhamondre Stevenson (Tom DaBombadil) New England’s lead back. Hall’s quad does the same for Braelon Allen (Burrow My Face in TDs).
The Matchups
All five, with picks.
Tom DaBombadil (3-2) vs. Trimeniscus in sept (5-0)
The column stops picking against Buscho.
Tom: Patrick Mahomes, James Cook, Rhamondre Stevenson, Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams, Trey McBride, Devaughn Vele, Romeo Doubs, LAR
Buscho: Drake Maye, Bijan Robinson, Cam Skattebo, George Pickens, Christian Watson, Brock Bowers, Chuba Hubbard, Michael Wilson, DEN
This column has picked against Buscho three straight weeks and lost all three. He’s 5-0, second in points, and coming off the season high, 176.14. Bijan (124.2) and Christian Watson (116.4) have each outscored everyone on Tom’s roster.
There are two risks. One is Bowers, limited Wednesday with the knee. If he can’t go, Michael Mayer (44.1) is on the bench and plays in the same game, which makes it the cleanest hedge in the league. The other is the Denver defense, which plays tonight without Surtain and Hufanga against Smith-Njigba.
Tom is 3-2 while averaging 122.5, the second-fewest points in the league. He took the advice last week and benched Sadiq, and it worked. Henderson’s high ankle sprain makes Stevenson (18.4 and 17.5 the last two weeks) New England’s lead back. Mahomes is back from his bye. But the flex has the same leak as last week: Romeo Doubs, who scored 2.6 there, is starting again, and Colston Loveland (24.0 on the season) is on the bench.
Pick: Trimeniscus in sept. Not fighting it a fourth time.Champion of the Sun God (3-2) vs. alindeman (2-3)
The league’s top-scoring team against its lowest.
Max: Lamar Jackson, Kyren Williams, J.K. Dobbins, Jalen Coker, Zay Flowers, George Kittle, Denzel Boston, Matthew Golden, SEA
Lindeman: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Jeremiyah Love, Rome Odunze, Emeka Egbuka, Dalton Kincaid, Wan’Dale Robinson, Woody Marks, BAL
Max still leads the league in points (743.64) and averages 148.7. Lindeman averages 107.9 and has scored 73.08 fewer points than anyone else. That’s a 40-point gap before anyone looks at an injury report.
Max’s question is quarterback. Lamar missed Wednesday. Daniels scored 32.26 last week. Only one of them plays before Monday. Around that, Golden (20.3 last week) and Kyren Williams (19.6) have been steady. With Chase Brown on bye, Dobbins, who scored 15.4 on the bench last week, starts at running back tonight.
Lindeman’s offense is Purdy (121.6, second among rostered quarterbacks) and McCaffrey (91.3). Last week those two, LaPorta and Egbuka were the whole offense. This week LaPorta is on bye, Love is in doubt, Wan’Dale Robinson and Marks are new, and Kincaid is starting again after scoring 3.7.
Pick: Champion of the Sun Godlouieyu2000 (4-1) vs. ChrisConte47 (3-2)
The best quarterback in the league, without the best running back in the league.
Louie: Matthew Stafford, Jonathan Taylor, Bucky Irving, Tetairoa McMillan, Drake London, Jake Ferguson, RJ Harvey, D’Andre Swift, NE
Conte: Josh Allen, MarShawn Lloyd, Emanuel Wilson, Parker Washington, Mike Evans, Brenton Strange, Jaylen Waddle, Nico Collins, JAX
Conte has the league’s best quarterback by a wide margin: Josh Allen has 148.0 points, 26 more than any other rostered QB. Conte also has Jahmyr Gibbs, and Gibbs is on bye. That takes 30.7 points a week out of the lineup. MarShawn Lloyd (16.7 on the bench last week) moves in. Emanuel Wilson becomes Seattle’s lead back tonight with Charbonnet out. Parker Washington, last week’s supposed “leak” who scored 33.4, starts again, and this column has learned its lesson. The one new question is at tight end. Conte added Brenton Strange and is starting him over Harold Fannin Jr. (51.7 on the season, 1.4 last week). Strange plays in London.
Louie is 4-1 and has the deeper backfield: Taylor (97.4), Swift (80.8) and Irving (78.7, coming off 31.5). Stafford, last week’s best quarterback call, starts again. McMillan is back from his bye. Penix practicing in full keeps London’s floor intact. The worry is the flex. RJ Harvey, this column’s fix from last week, scored 0.7. He’s starting again, and he plays tonight. DK Metcalf and Rachaad White are on the bench.
Pick: louieyu2000, narrowly. Allen can flip it by himself.hodoryourhorses (2-3) vs. Burrow My Face in TDs (1-4)
Both lineups have a hole. Whoever fixes theirs first is the favorite.
Sean: Dak Prescott, Omarion Hampton, Jaylen Warren, CeeDee Lamb, Chris Olave, Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, Quinshon Judkins, KC
Chuck: Joe Burrow, Kenneth Walker, Braelon Allen, Puka Nacua, Malik Nabers, Juwan Johnson, Josh Downs, Kalif Raymond, HOU
As the lineups stand this morning, Chuck has a zero at quarterback. Sean has Rice, who’s expected out, and Judkins, who didn’t practice. Both managers can fix their problems before kickoff.
Chuck left only 2.30 points on his bench last week, the cleanest lineup in the league, and lost anyway. Kenneth Walker is back from Kansas City’s bye and is averaging 28.3 in his four games. Puka Nacua just caught 17 passes for 37.7. Braelon Allen gets the Jets backfield again with Hall out, and he’s coming off 18.6. With Love at quarterback, this is a real lineup.
Sean has Jaylen Warren, coming off 42.8, the best game in the league last week. Lamb practiced in full after last week’s 2.9. Dak gets Green Bay on Sunday night. If Corum replaces Rice and Judkins plays, Sean’s lineup goes deeper.
Pick: hodoryourhorses — if Burrow stays in. If Chuck starts Love and Sean keeps Rice, Burrow My Face in TDs.Fudge Friends (1-4) vs. Haasinator5 (1-4)
Two of the three 1-4 teams. The loser stays in the last-place race.
Fudge Friends: Trevor Lawrence, Derrick Henry, Ashton Jeanty, Xavier Worthy, Carnell Tate, Tyler Warren, Bhayshul Tuten, Tony Pollard, PIT
Haas: Justin Herbert, Saquon Barkley, Javonte Williams, Terry McLaurin, Luther Burden, Isaiah Likely, Alvin Kamara, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, CHI
Haas has the best receiver in the league. Smith-Njigba (143.5) plays tonight against a Denver secondary missing two starters. Isaiah Likely just scored 32.4. But Goff is on bye, so Justin Herbert starts (12.1 a week). Barkley isn’t expected to play, and there’s no running back behind him. Haas has also given up 753.36 points, the most in the league by 28.06.
Fudge Friends have the best backfield in this game: Henry (111.8), Jeanty (84.6, full practice Wednesday) and Tuten. Chase is on bye, so Xavier Worthy, back from Kansas City’s bye, starts in his place. Tate starts again after scoring 1.6. Lawrence and Tuten play in London.
Pick: Fudge Friends. If Barkley plays, call it even.Week 6 Picks
On the record. Season: 13-for-25.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
| Tom DaBombadil vs. Trimeniscus in sept | Trimeniscus in sept |
| Champion of the Sun God vs. alindeman | Champion of the Sun God |
| louieyu2000 vs. ChrisConte47 | louieyu2000 |
| hodoryourhorses vs. Burrow My Face in TDs | hodoryourhorses (Burrow My Face in TDs if Chuck starts Love and Sean keeps Rice) |
| Fudge Friends vs. Haasinator5 | Fudge Friends |
Five Things to Watch
What actually decides this week.
1. Tonight locks nine players
Seahawks–Broncos at 5:15 p.m. Arizona time. Smith-Njigba gets a secondary without Surtain or Hufanga. Haas has to decide on Sutton before anyone knows Barkley’s status.
2. The 6:30 a.m. London lock
Texans–Jaguars kicks off before most of this league is awake. Nico Collins, Woody Marks, Brenton Strange, Parker Washington, Trevor Lawrence, Bhayshul Tuten, Brian Thomas Jr., Chris Rodriguez and both defenses lock with it. Set those lineups Saturday night.
3. Lamar or Daniels
Max has to choose by 10 a.m. Sunday, and Daniels doesn’t play until Monday. Friday’s practice report is the whole decision.
4. Corum, again
Last week he scored 16.2 on Sean’s bench in a 0.90-point loss. This week he’s the best healthy fix on that bench. The commissioner gets the same advice as everyone else.
5. Can anyone beat Buscho?
He’s 5-0, second in points, and coming off the season high. Tom’s best hope is Seattle hanging a big number on Buscho’s Denver defense tonight.